 CHINA'S PEACEFUL RISE AND NEW ROLE OF ASIA Zheng Bijian, Chairman, China Reform Forum |
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Ladies and Gentlemen, Friends:
One of the hot topics of international attention is China's peaceful rise. Can China rise peacefully? Will it be a blessing or a peril to the rest of Asia and the world? Opinions vary.
In the past 20 years, the peaceful rise of China has already had a good beginning, but the process is by no means complete. The rise of a country with a population of 1.3-1.5 billion is not an easy task. This is especially true in the first half of the 21st century when we are faced with both a"golden period of development" and an"intense period of predicaments". Speaking of predicaments, there are three fundamental challenges in the areas of economic and social growth:
The first is the challenge in resources, especially energy. China lags behind in terms of per-capita possession in resources. At the same time, the fast pace of development and lower level of technology and know-how have contributed to the high energy consumption in manufacturing, both aggregate and unit consumption, by international standard. The massive shift of international manufacturing to China has also brought about a certain degree of"transfer of energy consumption". This has made the shortage of resources, especially energy, into a big hindrance to China's peaceful rise.
The second is the challenge of the eco-system. Grave environmental pollution and the deterioration of the eco-system, the relatively low yield of resource consumption as a result of fast industrialization and modernization have all contributed to a bottleneck in sustainable growth.
The third challenge is a series of predicaments in the process of economic and social coordination. For example, our GDP has to maintain its fast growth and social undertakings also need to keep booming; technological advances and industry upgrading should be promoted, but employment should also be augmented; the strong economic momentum in the eastern part must be maintained but development in the central and western parts should also be promoted; urbanization should be bolstered but rural areas should be nourished by the process; there should be fairness in redistribution to narrow the urban-rural gap, but it should not affect vitality and efficiency in the economy; reform should be deepened, but social stability must be maintained; market competition should be espoused, but the livelihood of those in economic difficulties should also receive attention, and so on. The solution to these predicaments should not lie in a lopsided approach. Instead, there should be a series of coordinated measures in order to achieve fast and healthy growth.
These three big challenges in the first half of the 21st century can, in my opinion, turn into three ways of transcendence, or three strategies, when the Chinese government formulates solutions:
The first big strategy is to transcend the old-style road of industrialization and continue on the road of new-style industrialization. Obviously, it would be impossible for China to use the old-style road of industrialization of high input, high consumption and high pollution. Therefore, China is determined to blaze a new road of industrialization characterized by high technology input, economic efficiency, low consumption of resources, low pollution to the environment and full play of human resources advantage.
The second big strategy is to transcend the traditional development approach that big powers took in modern history and the cold-war mentality marked by ideology, and to continue participating in economic globalization. We will neither seek hegemony nor claim hegemony, neither act as a leader nor become a vassal. We have bravely adopted the reform and open-door policy, and that means we will, in the process of participating in-- rather than divorcing ourselves from economic globalization, learn and benefit from the fruits of human civilization and independently build Chinese-style socialism and gradually realize our goal of peaceful rise.
The third big strategy is to transcend outdated social management modes and continue to build a harmonious society of socialism. New problems China has encountered include simultaneous appearance of vitality and disorders, efficiency and lack of balance. Facing these paradoxes, China's leadership is focused on building a social network that links government control mechanisms with social coordination mechanisms, complement government administrative functions with social self-regulating functions, and fuse government management forces with social adjustment forces. This is aimed at improving governance and social management.
The three strategies for China during the first half of the 21st century can be summed up as maintaining peace and harmonyC external peace and internal harmony-- the two are linked with each other and complement each other. The goal is to lead the 1.3-1.5 billion Chinese people in their arduous endeavor to build a better life and make more contribution to humanity in response to risks and challenges and through win-win cooperation with other countries. This is the development road of China's peaceful rise as we understand it.
We are fully aware that, to successfully address the"three challenges" and effectively implement the"three strategies" for the realization of peaceful rise, it will take more than five, ten or even twenty years. In other words, it will be in the mid-century that noticeable results will be seen.
With a view to implement these strategies, various Chinese government agencies and research departments are focused on how to meet the challenges through self-reliance and how to promote the building of a harmonious society. They are carrying out researches and making short-term, medium-term and long-term development strategies for different fields, particularly in energy, environment, population and the ageing of population, etc. Take energy for instance, the past 20 years saw China quadrupling its GDP at the cost of doubling its energy consumption. In the next 20 years, China is set to quadruple its GDP. How to balance development with energy conservation and how to find a way of resources saving---these are subjects that cry for solution.
One of the important bases for formulating this goal and drawing up development plans is the advantages and the foundation China now has. China has the advantages of a potentially huge market, a huge pool of human resources, tradition of frugality which explains a high savings rate and abundance of private capital. The list goes on and on.
For example, along China's east coast there are clusters of cities vibrant with economic activities, but in central and western areas there are also emerging central cities. They will be the driving forces behind the nation's fast economic growth.
Another example is the vast rural labor force that is intent on getting out of poverty. They are not only the reserve force for the country's manufacturing, but also a vital new force to replace rural deprivation with industrial civilization.
The third example is the immense vitality generated by labor, knowledge, technology, management, capital and other elements that have been discharged by the reform and open policy.
Last but not least, it should be noted that practice has proved that innovation is the unceasing driving engine that propels China's prosperity and peaceful rise in the 21 century. This includes innovation in theory, technology, systems, culture and other areas.
The innovation for China is to adopt the Chinese style modernization road or the Socialism with Chinese characteristics. Whether it is called"Chinese-style" or"Chinese characteristics", it means to start from our own situation and go our own way, to rely mainly on ourselves, solve our own problems and difficulties and not create trouble for others.
In conclusion, firstly, the road of China's peaceful rise or peaceful development is, as I have stated, an organic integration of China's domestic policies and foreign policies, of international experience and Chinese characteristics. It is a fundamental strategic choice for China's modernization drive. Apart from it, there is no alternative.
Secondly, China's peaceful rise is a great cause that encompasses modernization, looks to the world and the future. An important result is the emerging of a huge market with 1.3-1.5 billion. Such an expanding open market provides new opportunities for Asia and the world. It will benefit the expansion of the world market in the same spirit of"universe expansion." Therefore, what China's peaceful rise will mean to Asia and the world is opportunities rather than threat.
Besides, the peaceful rise of Asia, especially East Asia and South Asia, will provide a new experience and a new model for the peaceful co-existence of countries and regions with diverse systems and cultures. In the last couple of years, the process of ASEAN+ 3 has been quickened, with various parties involved seeking for consensus in the areas of finance, trade, investment and education. All related countries were looking for cooperation modes and development models with East Asian characteristics. Later this year, there will be an East Asia Summit, which is latest development of the deepened economic cooperation.
There are however, hot issues and historical conflicts remain in this region. But I believe that statesmen and peoples in the region, with their wisdom and capability, can deal with them.
We are glad to see that, in the first half of the 21st century, a group of countries are heading towards peaceful rise in different ways and speed and following different models. At the same time, developed countries are also seeking new and sweeping growth in another round of modernization. Looking at the European continent and the Asian continent, one will see that East Asia, South Asia and Europe are rising just like the sunrise. This is an important new trend in today's peaceful development of the world, and we should embrace it.
Thank you. |
| Source: Boao Forum For Asia |
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| CHINA'S PEACEFUL RISE AND NEW ROLE OF ASIA Zheng Bijian, Chairman, China Reform Forum |
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